Posted: 23-July-09 at 10:30am | IP Logged

Who is running for what... 

http://www.enterprisenews.com/news/x212471873/Former-Brockto n-mayoral-candidate-Jass-Stewart-seeking-public-office-again

Quote:

…three candidates for mayor — Harrington, Councilor-at-large Linda Balzotti and local businessman Arnold Greenblatt. Another potential candidate, Stephen Walsh, has not yet returned nomination papers.

With three candidates, there will be a preliminary election on Sept. 15.

…The councilor-at-large candidates, so far, are incumbent Robert Sullivan, Gerald Conefrey, Larry Curtis, Fred Fontaine, Marc Lucas, Todd Petti and John Williams. Potential candidates who have not returned papers are incumbent Thomas Brophy, Patrick Quinn, Richard Saccaro and Stewart, also potentially running for mayor.

Posted: 23-July-09 at 6:35pm | IP Logged

I work in both public and private education and have some exposure to politicians.  Most of those I talked to, both in and out of government, agree on the most interesting current issue in the election - what will Stewart do.  However, we have no stake or preference in the election.  We know and respect Harrington, Balzotti, and Stewart.  This is our prediction and the rationale for it.

Harrington won the 2007 election about 6,700 to Stewart's 6,100.  There was a large anti-incumbent and pro-outsider/change vote - before the recession and before Obama.   Many believe Stewart's best chance was against Harrington in Harrington's first election since Harrington was not an incumbent in 2005 so Stewart should have run for councilor-at-large in 2007 but that was pre-Deval and pre-more outsider/change feelings so maybe not.  All objective observers commend Stewart for strong showings by an outsider.  

The Deval and Obama victories have increased the number of voters for outsiders.  If you do not like Deval or Obama then try not to let that feeling blur the reality of the data.  Stewart can capitalize on that momentum if he retains the substance and loses the non-common touch flashiness in his signs and  pamphlets, and does more knocking on doors, and has the discipline to stop stunts like parades of cars honking through the city.  Then he should easily win one of the four councilor-at-large seats and would likely do so anytime in the future. 

In a possible mayor election, incumbent Harrington's popularity has decreased due to his own many failings and the growing anti-incumbent feeling due to government screwing up the economy.  Harrington is both incumbent and insider so Harrington gets most (about 2/3) of the decreasing establishment vote due to city jobs, appointments, and other allegiances.  The establishment vote is decreasing mostly because the anti-establishment, anti-incumbent, and outsider vote is increasing and more so due to Deval and Obama.  Harrington gets none of the increasing anti-incumbent and outsider votes. 

Balzotti is not the incumbent and, as the top vote-getting councillor, she is hardly an outsider or anti-establishment.  But she is more of an outsider than Harrington (so she beats Harrington if Stewart does not run for mayor.)  Balzotti gets the other 1/3 of the establishment vote.  If Stewart does not run for mayor, she gets almost all of the anti-incumbent and outsider votes.  But if Stewart runs for mayor then Stewart gets almost none of the establishment vote.  Stewart gets more anti-incumbent votes than Balzotti and gets almost all of the outsider vote.  So Balzotti does not want Stewart in the mayor race. 

As many said, Harrington's chances are better with Stewart in the mayor race.  A key in the race is the overlap of the anti-incumbent and outsider votes which you will see more clearly when we see if Harrington or Balzotti drop out before the primary.

So if Stewart runs for mayor then there are three candidates and three types of votes.  We felt there were many types of votes but needed to come up with an easy to understand breakdown of the major types of votes and the number of types of votes.  Three major types of votes seemed to be a reasonable number to understand.  The 3 types of votes seemed to become obvious as we analized it more and more.  Anyone else may disagree which is fine.  The primary has a smaller number of total voters (about 9,000) but a larger percentage of establishment voters (although they are decreasing) compared to the November election (total voters about 15,000).  If the primary vote total is lower then that likely increases the percentage of establishment voters and favors Harrington or Balzotti but not significantly.  The estimate of the total voters is less important than the estimate of the types of votes (establishment, anti-incumbent, and outsider) and the estimated percentage of each type of votes.  As the economy worsens, the anti-incumbent and outsider votes will grow even among the establishment.

Of the 9,000 primary voters, about half (4,500) will be establishment votes, an estimate on the high side favoring Harrington and Balzotti.  That percentage  naturally decreases in the November election favoring Stewart and there is little Harrington and Balzotti can do about that.  Incumbent Harrington gets about 3,000 establishment votes in the primary.  Not incumbent but not an outsider Balzotti gets about 1,500.  Not an incumbent and not an outsider Stewart gets almost none of the establishment vote. 

Harrington is the establishment.  Stewart is the outsider and anti-incumbent.  In this particular race, the idea of having the other two types of votes being anti-incumbent and outsider comes from the most interesting candidate in the race -Balzotti who is not an incumbent but not an outsider.  In the 2009 recession, Balzotti not being an outsider may be the top factor in a three person race hurting her and helping Stewart. 

Of the remaining 4,500 primary votes, 1/3 may be anti-incumbent votes and 2/3 may be outsider votes.    These are reasonable guesses since any significant changes to these numbers may likely favor Stewart since he is the only anti-incumbent and outsider in the race and the establishment vote is decreasing and decreases from the primary to November.  But all the reasonable guesses here will lean away from Stewart to show how well he will do despite those conservative leanings and estimates and if he runs for mayor. 

With Stewart in the race, a high estimate for anti-incumbent votes for Balzotti may be 500 out of 1,500 votes - again, an estimate not favoring Stewart.  The other 1,000 anti-incumbent votes go to Stewart. 

The 1/3 that is outsider votes or 3,000 obviously go to Stewart. 

Of the 9,000 primary votes, Harrington gets 3,000 (establishment votes), Balzotti gets 2,000 (1,500 establishment votes and 500 anti-incumbent votes), and Stewart gets 4,000 (1,000 anti-incumbent votes and 3,000 outsider votes).

Harrington or Balzotti can drop out of the race before the primary.  If one does drop out then Stewart's three-person primary vote (4,000) does not decrease in a two-person race.  The more likely drop out of the race option is Harrington drops out.  If so, almost all of his 3,000 primary votes go to Linda since they are establishment votes but the percentage of establishment votes will decrease significantly in November when the anti-incumbent and outsider votes will significantly increase.   Are some of Harrington's voters also anti-Balzotti?  Not likely.  But most of Balzotti's 500 anti-incumbent votes will go to Stewart since she is not an outsider.  That two-person primary result may be Balzotti gets 4,500 and Stewart gets 4,500. 

Although unlikely, if Balzotti drops out of the race then she needs to do so before next week to apply to run for re-election to the council which she would likely succeed in.  The newspaper said the deadline to apply to get on the ballot is next week.  If she drops out, some of her 1,500 primary establishment votes are also anti-Harrington votes - a low estimate again not favoring Stewart would be 500 of 1000.  Her 500 anti-incumbent votes go to Stewart.  Stewart gets 5,000 and Harrington gets 4,000.

In November, the total vote will increase from 9,000 to 15,000.  Establishment vote total of 4,500 does not change from the primary to November election.  The establishment vote includes city employees, their families, or those with  relationships with an insider.  They vote in every primary and November election.  The campaigns check the voters coming in the polling place on election day and call them all if they do not vote by the middle of the afternoon. So the establishment vote of 4,500 does not change from the primary to November.  But the total vote does so the 6,000 vote increase in November is not establishment vote and likely anti-incumbent or outsider voters especially in this worsening recession.

The best candidate against Stewart in November is obviously Balzotti.  Again the November vote types (3) and division of numbers (about 1/3 each) will be establishment (small increase to 5,000), anti-incumbent (5,000), and outsider vote (5,000).  Again, not favoring Stewart while knowing many establishment voters voted for him before and to use rounded off estimates, we give all the establishment votes to Harrington or Balzotti.  In this 2009 situation (very different climate than  2007), Harrington or Balzotti gets the 5,000 establishment votes and Stewart gets none.  Especially as the recession worsens, the large majority of the 10,000 anti-incumbent and outsider votes would go to Stewart.  Harrington may get 1,000 of them and Balzotti may get 2,000.  We believe it is likely that most votes for any other candidates in the primary besides these three candidates will be anti-establishment votes and go to Stewart.  November's result is either Stewart gets 8,000 and Balzotti gets 7,000 or Stewart gets 9,000 and Harrington gets 6,000.

Some may wish to dissect, expand, overlap, or change our three types of votes (establishment, anti-incumbent, and outsider) and the percentages of approximately one-third for both elections which is fine.   We felt it would be too complicated for us and others.  The numbers are estimates.   The reasoning is explained.  Anyone may disagree.  Some may think Stewart would have a bigger win or that Harrington or Balzotti would win.  We do not mean to imply the vote totals are not close.  But again, our estimates included not favoring, or were conservative towards, Stewart since we have no bias for him but estimated his win before we wrote this so we wanted to be clearly not favoring anyone.  So our result is a conservative estimate for Stewart and will likely be a less close election in reality. 

As said originally, Harrington's popularity has significantly decreased due to his failings plus he is an incumbent in a worsening recession unlike the supposed good times of 2007 when he still had a close victory.  That is some of the missed opportunity, assumed risks, and good or bad luck of being an incumbent.  Stewart is an outsider.  Stewart did not contribute to the recession or local problems so his luck is that his popularity has not significantly decreased.   Stewart has no significantly less management experience than any other outsider who has beaten an insider when the outsider's campaign and/or the anti-insider attitude of society helped the outsider.  Stewart is an original anti-power plant activist.  Harrington opposed the power plant late in the campaign when politically necessary.  Stewart remains as active or more active in youth and community groups than most politicians.   Stewart critics are obviously either typical "bomb throwing bloggers", as Deval calls them, or possible Harrington supporters or probable Balzotti supporters working for their candidates.  They are very used to dirty campaigns including making up all kinds of problems and blogging about them and/or sending them to the press who love to publish that stuff without evidence.  Makes you wonder why anyone wants to run for office and participate in that by either starting it or being a victim of it.  All's fair in love, war, politics, and blogging.

Harrington is now eligible for a big pension and with obvious declining popularity and chances that he can beat either then he will run a weaker campaign.  If Balzotti loses the mayor race then she loses her council seat also.   We assume that is a risk she understands and assumed wisely.  Stewart has nothing to lose.  He can run for and win a councilor-at-large seat easily anytime.  A competitive race for mayor will not be easy for anyone.   We can disagree on the factors and the outcome - until election night.  

The reason most bloggers will criticize this is because criticizing is more fun for bloggers (bomb throwers), most of the reasoning is mostly true, and/or they are likely supporters for Harrington or Balzotti.  Stewart could also have bloggers posting in support of him.  Apparently he does not - yet.  Maybe that is an indicator that he will go for the sure thing and run for councilor-at-large.  But there is little Harrington or Balzotti can really do about most of these numbers and the worsening recession.  When our family or friends are losing jobs, homes, vacations, tuitions, etc. and politicians keep cutting services and raising taxes and interest rates, and corporations that get taxpayer money from politicians then give the CEO a multimillion dollar bonus and increase fees on us then the last thing you want to do is hold a sign for or give a donation to a politician.  The local politician cannot fix much of that in 2-4 months while running for office.  Do you see that improving soon?  As Walter Cronkite would say, that's the way it is.

Arnold has been a good friend for decades so he gets my vote in the primary.  After that, may the best candidate win.  Or as usually happens, may the campaign with the least mistakes win.

Posted: 23-July-09 at 6:53pm | IP Logged

Wow!!!!!  Can I get a copy in paper back book. Interesting, but your just making up numbers.  Where is the Invisible Man (Stewart) going to get all the votes you think he will?  The Invisible voters?  If it comes down to Harrington vs Stewart, Harrington gets hat trick.

I do appreciate the work you put into it tho

Posted: 23-July-09 at 8:52pm | IP Logged

Who running for council seats has stated a position on the power plant?

Ward 2 runners are Miller and Monahan.  Monahan is backed by Utility Workers Union, pretty damn easy to figure out his leaning. Appears unions are fielding candidates to favor a pro-powerplant vote on the City Council. Stacking the deck..

Posted: 23-July-09 at 11:35pm | IP Logged

Candidates, where do you stand on the power plant issue?  Yes or no, should a power plant be built in Brockton?

Posted: 24-July-09 at 8:32am | IP Logged

Barb,

Thanks for the work you put into this.  While some may not agree with it, it's still a well thought out, and insightful analysis.

Welcome to InBrockton.com!

Posted: 24-July-09 at 9:47am | IP Logged

Wow good point MT, we have whole bunch of lazy self serving Councilors that in some cases people would vote out in a heart beat to get some change. But in voting them out the other option may be worse. It does seem there are some business backed candidates that may not reflect the interest of constituents, but more the interests of their outside backers.

If Jass throws his hat into the ring I think it will be the same tired and worn out message he had last time. The fact that he dropped off the radar screen since then brings him no credibility also.

Sullivan is really out there already, I see a lot of his signs around.

I see from both the paper and heard from others that Balzotti is out doing the hand shaking already too.

Posted: 24-July-09 at 9:49am | IP Logged

The catch for Stewart might be, in my mind, is that the voters have installed two dreamers already, and see what they've done to our state and our country.

Can Brockton afford to install another dreamer as the Mayor?

Catchy slogans don't run a troubled city.

Posted: 24-July-09 at 10:09am | IP Logged

Can Brockton afford to install another dreamer as the Mayor?

Can we not?  What has Harrington done? 

Posted: 24-July-09 at 10:17am | IP Logged

I think that the saddest commentary on the mayoral race is that in a city the size of Brockton, with all of it's issues (taxes, public services, crime, etc) only 15,000 people came out to vote for mayor.  That's sad.

Posted: 24-July-09 at 10:22am | IP Logged

Consider what putting the same people back in office again and again has gotten Brockton. 

And those of you who are for more of the same...please offer readers just three things any of them have done in recent years to help our city? 

Do we get even semi-regular town hall meetings to update us, keep us informed?

Where are the businesses they have brought to Brockton, where are the jobs, are our neighborhoods safer, is our downtown area cleaned up and thriving?  For goodness sakes, the mayor and the city council can't even get one (1) movie complex built and hiring in Brockton.   Excuses, oh yeah, we have an abundance of excuses.

Most of those currently in office are nice people, but nice doesn't get the job done.

Posted: 24-July-09 at 10:31am | IP Logged

Low expectations and even lower voter turnout is a major part of Brockton's problems. 

May our apathetic fellow voters get up off of their ample rumps (or boney rumps) and vote this time.  No excuses.  What a beautiful thing it would be to have an 80% or better voter turnout!

Posted: 24-July-09 at 11:13am | IP Logged

I think Jass would have a better chance of winning a council seat than for mayor.

I have my misgivings about electing another "Change" guy to any office.

That's all I've been left with.

Posted: 24-July-09 at 12:17pm | IP Logged

When is Balzotti going to come to my neighborhood?  Geez, I live about a mile from her, and haven't heard a peep.

I would LOVE a sign!

Anyone here on her committee?  Can I help?

You think she's invisible now? wait and see what happens if she gets elected.

Posted: 24-July-09 at 1:54pm | IP Logged

 And none of those mentioned have been elected again and again either and done next to nothing while in office.  Oh wait, some will say they have no experience...what Brockton has had in office shows what experience can do.  Nuttin' in the case of who we have had in office for a long time.